UFC 297: Preview and Predictions
The UFC is finally returning to Toronto for the first time since December 2018. The event is set to take place on January 20 marking the first pay-per-view card of the year. Let’s look at the main card, and break down what we might see on Saturday night.
Arnold Allen vs Movsar Evolev
A featherweight matchup between two rising contenders is set to open up the main card, in an exciting clash between some of the division’s best rising talents. Allen is coming off a loss to Max Holloway and is looking to get back in the win collum against the undefeated Evolev. I think Arnold Allen’s experience will win him this fight considering that he has competed against higher caliber opponents. Additionally, Allen’s striking is at a much higher level than Evolev which might be a problem for the undefeated Russian. Expect Evolev to try and take this fight to the ground early and hunt for a submission, but if he can not get Allen out early, I favor Allen to pull away down the stretch.
Chirs Curtis vs Marc-Andre Barriault
The first of two middleweight fights on the main card will be between top 20 middleweights Chris Curtis and Marc-Andre Barriault. Barriault, who is riding a two-fight win streak looks to enter the top 15 with a win on Saturday night. Both fighters are known for their striking but I will favor Curtis in that category simply because of his crisp boxing skills. I expect Curtis to be patient and rely on his counterstriking, whereas Barriault will most likely put pressure on his opponent and march forward for the entire fight. I do not expect either fighter to take this fight to the ground, and do expect a standup fight for as long as it lasts. In this matchup, I am picking Barriualt to win simply because he has the support of the Canadian crowd and I expect him to put it all on the line. I do understand that he has a tendency to get hit with a lot of shots on the entry which is dangerous considering Curtis excels while counterstriking, however, it is hard for me to pick against Barriault, especially in front of the Canadian crowd.
Neil Magny vs Mike Mallot
Fresh off a loss against Ian Garry, Niel Magny looks to get back in the win column against rising contender Mike Mallot. Mallot has now won six fights in a row and has finished all 10 of his wins and I do not expect either streak to end on Saturday night. Mallot is a well-rounded fighter who will use his leg kicks which is something Magny has struggled with in the past. Mallot can finish this fight on the feet and on the ground and will jump at any opportunity he sees. I expect a second-round finish, from the Canadian to maintain his 100% finish rate.
Raquel Pennington vs Mayra Bueno Silva
A championship co-main event with the Women’s Bantamweight Championship up for grabs after Amanda Nunes retired in June last year. This fight is a close match between a former challenger and a new contender. Pennington has much more experience including a championship match in 2018 against former champion Amanda Nunes. Despite losing in the fifth round via technical knockout it is important to consider her experience in the octagon compared to her opponent. That said, Silva is younger and has been far more active in recent years which can play in her favor ahead of her fight on Saturday. This fight is a toss-up and will likely go to the decision, however, if I had to pick I would lean towards Silva due to her age and activity.
Sean Strickland vs Dricus Du Plessis
After an impressive performance against one of the greatest middleweights in UFC history, Sean Strickland looks to defend his Championship for the first time against Dricus Du Plessis. Dricus is coming off an impressive win himself after he stopped Robert Whittaker at UFC 290 becoming the only middleweight since Israel Adesanya to stop Whittaker. Both fighters are coming off the biggest wins of their career and are set to collide in Toronto on Saturday. The match took a very personal turn during the seasonal press conference in December, leading up to a fight between the two during UFC 296. With temperatures reaching a boiling point this fight will entertain the fans from the opening bell.
Both fighters have a very unique fighting style which makes it difficult to be confident in a prediction for the fight. Strickland displayed wonderful defence against Adesanya however it was successful because of Adesanya’s counter-heavy fighting style. Du Plessis on the other hand is a pressure-heavy fighter which may be a problem for Stickland because he does at times overreach and overreact. I do believe that Strickland’s off-beat striking will be a challenge for Du Plessis simply because it is difficult to emulate and prepare for. Not to mention his distance management, and his calmness in the octagon which is likely a result of the amount of time he spends sparring. I do not anticipate either fighter looking to take the fight to the ground, however, if it does I favor Sean in the grappling department.
Final Prediction: Sean has fought much better competition compared to Dricus, and has the tools to stop the fight. Sean is also very motivated and hungry heading into the fight which makes me lean towards Sean. I think Sean will slowly deal damage throughout the fight, make Dricus get tired, and then finish him in the championship rounds. I do not count Dricus out, because he does have great power and pressure however with all things considered I favor the champion defending his belt.
Strickland vs Du Plessis is live this Saturday at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto Canada, only on PPV.
Credit: All photos and statistics are from the official UFC website.
